About two years ago my sister's iPod was blasting "It's a New Day" by rapper will.i.am, she was wearing a t-shirt that screamed "Hope," and her backpack was sprinkled with several red and blue pins. If you haven't recognized her yet, she was a generic teenager in 2008: an avid Barack Obama supporter.
Today, her iPod probably no longer has that will.i.am song, that "Hope" t-shirt is probably somewhere in my room, and those pins are most likely shoved somewhere in the cluttered basement. Where these three objects ended up today symbolize the shift in not only total support for now-President Obama, but also more specifically, teen support.
I looked far and wide on Google for any type of poll addressing the shift in teenage support for President Obama and turned up with no answer. Maybe I should have used Bing... After finding nothing, I felt like it couldn't be too hard to get some data myself, so I turned to my Facebook friends and put them up to the task to take a survey (anonymously). I asked three yes/no questions and one free response question. In only 24 hours, 85 teens responded, and the findings are intriguing.
The first question addressed teenage support for Obama during the 2008 election. Unsurprisingly, 62 anonymous survey-takers were supporters, while only 23 did not support Obama in 2008. The second question addressed approval of Obama's job almost a year and a half after being inaugurated. With 73% of the survey-takers supporting him 2008, only 47 approve of President Obama's job so far--quite a shift in popularity. The third question addressed the 2012 election. If the election was tomorrow, 41 teenagers (48%) would support the current President--only one more than approve of his job now.
This data only gave me the basic statistics. It was the free response answers that gave me the most insight as to why teenagers have either taken off their Obama pins or kept them on over the past two years. I found that there should have been four categories of responses, but Obama came away with only three.
The first noticeable group was teens who were supporters in 2008, and still back the President today. Most teens from this group pointed to the horrendous situation in which President Bush left this country. One teen who still supports the President said, "Americans expect Obama to fix the issues overnight... and we shouldn't be so quick to pounce on him every chance we get." As if anyone has criticized the president... Another survey taker said "he has faith in Obama... but everything takes time." This sentiment was the trend for this group: too much criticism and not enough time.
The second group was much less empathetic for our President. This is the group of teens that Obama lost since the 2008 election. One teen said "he has lost support for Obama. He ran as the anti-Bush candidate... but nothing has changed." This was the overwhelming sentiment from this group was simple: campaign promises have not been kept.
The third group was the group of teens who never were, and still are not supporters of Obama. Judging by their responses, I'm guessing many of them were very excited for an opportunity to get their grievances down in writing. One survey taker said "the President has failed to do anything good for the country." One of the more eloquent teen responses from this group of non-supporters stated "Obama is a socialist." The actual best response from this demographic said "Obama has not implemented anything of substance. He has spent more money... and he may have talked the talk, but his actions speak to a bigger government with no reliability or responsibility..." The sentiment from this group was oddly simple: too much spending, too liberal, and too many campaign lies.
There was one group that was missing, and would be very unsettling for the Obama campaign in 2012: teens that were not supporters in 2008 and now are on the Obama-train. While this is not news to anyone, this survey upheld the fact that the President has not gained much support since 2008, instead, the steam has been gradually decreasing. Not one of the 85 responses pointed to a "new" supporter, and even out of the 41 teens who would support Obama in 2012, many of them said they would be cautious to do so--very different than the "Hope" t-shirt wearing teen support in 2008.
This shift in popularity took place over only about two years. The reason for this shift may be a little deeper than answers to the free response question. There is no doubt that Obama's presidency has not gone as smoothly as many supporters like Sarah Palin and FOX News hoped it would, but it doesn't seem nearly bad enough to lose 26% support from 85 teens. It may be that teens in general make less serious of a commitment. In a generation where the hit song stays current for no more than a month, the turn in Obama support may be attributed to a lack of commitment to stand behind a man they supported only two years ago. If this is a contributing factor for Obama's slide in teen-approval then this could be a problem for a long time--not just Obama. This could mean a future of extremely volatile support for anyone in the public light.
Another theory might be that we had a short leash for Obama in such a critical time. Every survey taker lived through the entire Bush administration, and in turn, our generation might be tired of a failing and problem-ridden administration. If Obama's presidency continues to go downhill, my heart would go out to the next president. Talk about a short leash...
Or, It may just be that our generation is listening to the older generations, and turning our support for the president. We could just be serving as a microcosm for the "real" numbers of a generation above. Or, of course, maybe President Obama is doing poorly enough to lose 26% support over a two year span.
Whatever the reason is, the teenage population is and will be very important in the 2012 election. Many of the survey takers who supported Obama couldn't vote in 2008. Although they couldn't vote, teens were unarguably a huge part of Obama's victory. In 2012, according to this survey, teens could contribute to Obama's demise. Although it's very early for a prediction, let alone if Obama will run for reelection (let's assume he does), those teens who continue to back the President on hopes of an improvement in a second term may start packing up this hope a little early. Or maybe I'm wrong, perhaps Obama will find a way to mobilize support again and my sister can once again put those pins on her backpack.
-Adam Garnick
Today, her iPod probably no longer has that will.i.am song, that "Hope" t-shirt is probably somewhere in my room, and those pins are most likely shoved somewhere in the cluttered basement. Where these three objects ended up today symbolize the shift in not only total support for now-President Obama, but also more specifically, teen support.
I looked far and wide on Google for any type of poll addressing the shift in teenage support for President Obama and turned up with no answer. Maybe I should have used Bing... After finding nothing, I felt like it couldn't be too hard to get some data myself, so I turned to my Facebook friends and put them up to the task to take a survey (anonymously). I asked three yes/no questions and one free response question. In only 24 hours, 85 teens responded, and the findings are intriguing.
The first question addressed teenage support for Obama during the 2008 election. Unsurprisingly, 62 anonymous survey-takers were supporters, while only 23 did not support Obama in 2008. The second question addressed approval of Obama's job almost a year and a half after being inaugurated. With 73% of the survey-takers supporting him 2008, only 47 approve of President Obama's job so far--quite a shift in popularity. The third question addressed the 2012 election. If the election was tomorrow, 41 teenagers (48%) would support the current President--only one more than approve of his job now.
This data only gave me the basic statistics. It was the free response answers that gave me the most insight as to why teenagers have either taken off their Obama pins or kept them on over the past two years. I found that there should have been four categories of responses, but Obama came away with only three.
The first noticeable group was teens who were supporters in 2008, and still back the President today. Most teens from this group pointed to the horrendous situation in which President Bush left this country. One teen who still supports the President said, "Americans expect Obama to fix the issues overnight... and we shouldn't be so quick to pounce on him every chance we get." As if anyone has criticized the president... Another survey taker said "he has faith in Obama... but everything takes time." This sentiment was the trend for this group: too much criticism and not enough time.
The second group was much less empathetic for our President. This is the group of teens that Obama lost since the 2008 election. One teen said "he has lost support for Obama. He ran as the anti-Bush candidate... but nothing has changed." This was the overwhelming sentiment from this group was simple: campaign promises have not been kept.
The third group was the group of teens who never were, and still are not supporters of Obama. Judging by their responses, I'm guessing many of them were very excited for an opportunity to get their grievances down in writing. One survey taker said "the President has failed to do anything good for the country." One of the more eloquent teen responses from this group of non-supporters stated "Obama is a socialist." The actual best response from this demographic said "Obama has not implemented anything of substance. He has spent more money... and he may have talked the talk, but his actions speak to a bigger government with no reliability or responsibility..." The sentiment from this group was oddly simple: too much spending, too liberal, and too many campaign lies.
There was one group that was missing, and would be very unsettling for the Obama campaign in 2012: teens that were not supporters in 2008 and now are on the Obama-train. While this is not news to anyone, this survey upheld the fact that the President has not gained much support since 2008, instead, the steam has been gradually decreasing. Not one of the 85 responses pointed to a "new" supporter, and even out of the 41 teens who would support Obama in 2012, many of them said they would be cautious to do so--very different than the "Hope" t-shirt wearing teen support in 2008.
This shift in popularity took place over only about two years. The reason for this shift may be a little deeper than answers to the free response question. There is no doubt that Obama's presidency has not gone as smoothly as many supporters like Sarah Palin and FOX News hoped it would, but it doesn't seem nearly bad enough to lose 26% support from 85 teens. It may be that teens in general make less serious of a commitment. In a generation where the hit song stays current for no more than a month, the turn in Obama support may be attributed to a lack of commitment to stand behind a man they supported only two years ago. If this is a contributing factor for Obama's slide in teen-approval then this could be a problem for a long time--not just Obama. This could mean a future of extremely volatile support for anyone in the public light.
Another theory might be that we had a short leash for Obama in such a critical time. Every survey taker lived through the entire Bush administration, and in turn, our generation might be tired of a failing and problem-ridden administration. If Obama's presidency continues to go downhill, my heart would go out to the next president. Talk about a short leash...
Or, It may just be that our generation is listening to the older generations, and turning our support for the president. We could just be serving as a microcosm for the "real" numbers of a generation above. Or, of course, maybe President Obama is doing poorly enough to lose 26% support over a two year span.
Whatever the reason is, the teenage population is and will be very important in the 2012 election. Many of the survey takers who supported Obama couldn't vote in 2008. Although they couldn't vote, teens were unarguably a huge part of Obama's victory. In 2012, according to this survey, teens could contribute to Obama's demise. Although it's very early for a prediction, let alone if Obama will run for reelection (let's assume he does), those teens who continue to back the President on hopes of an improvement in a second term may start packing up this hope a little early. Or maybe I'm wrong, perhaps Obama will find a way to mobilize support again and my sister can once again put those pins on her backpack.
-Adam Garnick
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